AFBF: Thanksgiving dinner will cost a bit less than in 2022

Gathering around the table for a Thanksgiving dinner won’t take as much of a toll on your pocketbook this year compared to 2022, but the meal still reflects historically high costs. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 38th annual survey provides a snapshot of the average cost of this year’s classic holiday feast for 10, which is $61.17 or less than $6.20 per person.

This is a 4.5 percent decrease from last year’s record-high average of $64.05, but a Thanksgiving meal is still 25 percent higher than it was in 2019, which highlights the impact high supply costs and inflation have had on food prices since before the pandemic.

AFBF Thanksgiving Dinner — Image by AFBF

The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables — the turkey — helped bring down the overall cost of dinner. The average price for a 16-pound turkey is $27.35. That is $1.71 per pound, down 5.6 percent from last year.

Farm Bureau “volunteer shoppers” checked prices from Nov. 1 to 6, before most grocery store chains began featuring whole frozen turkeys at sharply lower prices. According to USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data, the average per-pound feature price for whole frozen turkeys declined further during the second week of November. Consumers who have not yet purchased a turkey may find additional savings in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.

“Traditionally, the turkey is the most expensive item on the Thanksgiving dinner table,” said AFBF Senior Economist Veronica Nigh. “Turkey prices have fallen thanks to a sharp reduction in cases of avian influenza, which have allowed production to increase in time for the holiday.”

The shopping list for Farm Bureau’s informal survey includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream, all in quantities sufficient to serve a family of 10 with plenty of leftovers.

“While shoppers will see a slight improvement in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner, high inflation continues to hammer families across the country, including the nation’s farmers,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “Growing the food families rely on is a constant challenge for farmers because of high fuel, seed, fertilizer and transportation costs, just to name a few.

“While high food prices are a concern for every family, America still has one of the most affordable food supplies in the world. We’ve accomplished that, in part, due to strong farm bill programs. Although our focus is sharing time with family and friends this Thanksgiving, our thoughts also turn to encouraging Congress to double down on a commitment to passing a new farm bill with a modernized safety net to support those who raise the crops and livestock that supply Thanksgiving dinner and every dinner.”

In recognition of changes in Thanksgiving dinner traditions, the Farm Bureau price survey also includes boneless ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans in an expanded menu. Adding these foods to the classic Thanksgiving menu increased the overall cost by $23.58, to $84.75.

This year’s national average cost was calculated using 245 surveys completed with pricing data from all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers checked prices in person and online using grocery store apps and websites. They looked for the best possible prices without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or purchase deals.

The AFBF Thanksgiving dinner survey was first conducted in 1986. The informal survey provides a record of comparative holiday meal costs over the years. Farm Bureau’s classic survey menu has remained unchanged since 1986 to allow for consistent price comparisons.

Individual Prices

16-pound turkey: $27.35 or $1.71 per pound (down 5.6%)
14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.77 (down 2.8%)
Two frozen pie crusts: $3.50 (down 4.9%)
Half pint of whipping cream: $1.73 (down 22.8%)
One pound of frozen peas: $1.88 (down 1.1%)
One dozen dinner rolls: $3.84 (up 2.9%)
Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95 (down 4.4%)
30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.44 (up 3.7%)
One gallon of whole milk: $3.74 (down 2.6%)
Three pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.97 (up .3%)
One-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $.90 (up 2.3%)
12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.10 (down 18.3%)

Regional Averages

AFBF analysis revealed regional differences in the cost of the meal. The cost for the classic meal was the most affordable in the Midwest — $58.66, followed by the South — $59.10, the West — $63.89, and the Northeast — $64.38. The expanded meal (classic meal plus boneless ham, Russet potatoes, and green beans) was the most affordable in the Midwest — $81.83, the South – $82.61, the West — $87.75, and the Northeast — $88.43.