EIA: Press Releases - Agra Energy

U.S. Energy Information Administration – EIA

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

November 7, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global liquid fuels production to increase by 1.0 million barrels per day next year. We expect OPEC+ production cuts will remain in place through the end of 2024 and offset non-OPEC production growth. EIA expects a slight decline in global oil inventories in early 2024.

In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average about $93 per barrel in 2024, up by over $9 per barrel from this year. Risks of supply disruptions and price volatility are heightened amid potential conflict spreading in the Middle East.

In addition, EIA forecasts that U.S. motorists will consume less gasoline per capita in 2024, resulting in the lowest gasoline consumption in two decades. “U.S. motorists are driving less because they aren’t commuting to work every day, newer gasoline-fueled vehicles are more efficient, and there are more electric vehicles on the road,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “Put those trends together with high gasoline prices and high inflation, and we find that U.S. motorists are using less gasoline.”

Other highlights from the November STEO include:

Coal markets. Record coal demand from Europe and Asia is driving U.S. coal exports to return to pre-pandemic levels. EIA expects U.S. coal production to fall in 2024 as the domestic electric power sector generates more power from renewable resources, such as solar and wind, rather than coal.

Electricity consumption. U.S. electricity consumption will increase next year, and the largest increase will be in the residential sector. Winter conditions in 2024 will be colder and summer temperatures will be warmer than in 2023, which contributes to higher consumption. Electricity consumption will also increase in the commercial and industrial sectors.

The full November 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook available on the EIA website. EIA also published a Between the Lines supplement detailing our evolving forecast for Russia’s petroleum liquids production and trade and updated our forecast for seasonal heating expenditures in the Winter Fuels Outlook.

The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, STEO@eia.gov

EIA Press Contact: Morgan Butterfield, EIAMedia@eia.gov

Go to Source
Author:

U.S. Energy Information Administration – EIA

EIA: Press Releases

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 19, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will delay its scheduled data releases for November 8–10, 2023, to complete a planned systems upgrade. EIA will resume its regular publishing schedule on November 13.

The delay will affect all scheduled data releases, including the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) on November 8 and the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) on November 9. EIA will continue to collect data for those reports and will publish two weeks of official statistics for the WPSR on November 15 and the WNGSR on November 16.

All EIA survey respondents will continue to submit data to EIA during the systems upgrade.

This statement was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, EIAMedia@eia.gov

General Public Contact: InfoCtr@eia.gov

Go to Source
Author:

U.S. Energy Information Administration – EIA

EIA: Press Releases

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 12, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will host a webinar to discuss price, consumption, and expenditure trends for major heating fuels for U.S. households for the upcoming winter. In its Winter Fuels Outlook, compared with last winter, EIA expects: U.S. households that heat with natural gas and those that are in the West (regardless of fuel type) will spend less on heating costs this winter. U.S. households that heat with heating oil will spend slightly more this winter. U.S. households that heat with propane or electricity are likely to see costs remain relatively similar this winter. EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis will share EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts, and a panel of EIA experts will answer questions from attendees. The webinar is open to the public, but registration is required. More information about the Winter Fuels Outlook is available at EIA.gov.
What:	Winter Fuels Outlook discussion of forecasts
When:	Monday, October 16, 2023, at 11:00 a.m. eastern time
Where:	Virtual event
Who:	Joe DeCarolis, Administrator, EIA Hannah Breul, Short-Term Integrated Products Team Lead, EIA
Register:	https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/webinar/winter_fuels_outlook_2023/
EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, Chris.Higginbotham@eia.gov

Go to Source
Author:

U.S. Energy Information Administration – EIA

EIA: Press Releases

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 11, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. households that heat with natural gas or are in the West will spend less on heating costs this winter than last winter. In its 2023 Winter Fuels Outlook, EIA forecasts residential natural gas prices this winter will be about 21% lower than last winter. Natural gas is the most common source of heat for U.S. households.

“Natural gas prices this year have been consistently lower than in 2022. Even if this winter is colder than forecast, we still expect households heated by natural gas to pay less for heat this winter,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.

Costs for households heating with propane and electricity are likely to remain relatively flat. For homes that use heating oil, EIA expects that heating expenses will be somewhat higher this winter. Warmer-than- or colder-than-expected temperatures could affect heating oil costs

The United States typically consumes more heating fuels than it produces during the winter, so inventories become an important factor in commodity prices. Heading into this winter heating season, inventories for most heating fuels in most of the country are above the five-year average, following a relatively mild end to the 2022–2023 winter. EIA expects U.S. natural gas inventories will end October 6% above the five-year average, and propane stocks are currently 17% above the five-year average.

The Winter Fuels Outlook is a supplement to EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and EIA will update it every month through February to reflect changes in commodity prices and temperatures.

Other highlights from the October STEO include:

Oil: EIA forecasts that global petroleum inventories will decrease by about 280,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2023. This decrease is due to reduced OPEC+ crude oil production targets and the continued voluntary production cut from Saudi Arabia. EIA expects the decrease in oil supplies to push oil prices higher in 2024; the Brent crude oil spot price averages $95 per barrel in 2024, according to EIA’s forecast. “We expect crude oil prices to rise in response to lower global oil inventories, although significant uncertainty persists around global demand for oil products,” DeCarolis said.

Electricity: EIA expects that natural gas will provide 42% of U.S. electricity generation in 2023, which is largely due to lower natural gas prices this year than in 2022, continued retirement of U.S. coal-fired electricity generators, and 5 gigawatts of high-efficiency natural gas-fired generators coming online this year. EIA expects the share of electricity generation from natural gas will decrease to 41% in 2024, which is still a greater share than in 2022.

Renewables: EIA expects that renewables will continue to grow as a share of U.S. electricity generation in 2024, accounting for one-quarter of U.S. electricity generation next year. This growth is largely driven by significant increases in wind and solar electricity-generating capacity. “As coal provides less and less power to the grid, we expect the contributions of natural gas and renewables, in particular, to make up the difference,” DeCarolis said.

The full October 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.

EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, STEO@eia.gov

EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, EIAMedia@eia.gov

Go to Source
Author:

U.S. Energy Information Administration – EIA

EIA: Press Releases

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 11, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global energy consumption and associated CO₂ emissions will increase through 2050 (assuming the global energy system remains on its current trajectory and absent new policy). Global population growth, increased regional manufacturing, and higher living standards push growth in energy consumption beyond advances in energy efficiency, according to EIA’s projections in its International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023).

In IEO2023, EIA projects that global energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase through 2050 in most of the cases modeled. Although EIA expects zero-carbon technology—renewables and nuclear—will meet the bulk of new energy demand through 2050, that growth is not sufficient to decrease global energy-related CO₂ emissions in most cases under current laws and regulations, according to EIA’s projections.

“IEO2023 fills an important niche among global outlooks by focusing on a plausible but sober assessment of global energy trends through the first half of the century,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “There is considerable uncertainty in the energy landscape over the next 30 years, and the IEO provides a set of policy neutral baselines that will help guide sound decision-making.”

EIA’s projections assume no new laws and regulations, although they include side cases that account for varying levels of economic growth, oil prices, and zero-carbon technology costs.

Below are three main takeaways from EIA’s IEO2023 projections, followed by key sector-specific highlights.

Increasing population and income offset the effects of declining energy and carbon intensity on emissions.

Across all cases explored in IEO2023, global energy consumption increases, with the fastest growth in the residential and industrial sectors. Global consumption of liquid fuels increases through 2050, with the fastest growth occurring in industrial applications such as chemical production.

Economic growth and increased disposable income also increase demand for transportation in all cases.

“The transportation and industrial sectors are major consumers of liquid fuels throughout our projection period, but as electric vehicles grow to become a larger part of the global transportation fleet, the industrial sector accounts for an increasing share of petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption,” DeCarolis said.

The shift to renewables to meet growing electricity demand is driven by regional resources, technology costs, and policy.

Compared with 2022, global electric power generating capacity increases by somewhere between 55% and 108% by 2050, depending on the case. Electricity generation increases between 30% to 76% over that period. Renewables, nuclear, and battery storage account for most of the growth in both global capacity and generation.

Electricity generation from renewables and nuclear could increase by between 54% and 67%, according to EIA’s projections.

“Renewables become an increasingly cost-competitive source of electricity and grow the fastest in cases that assume high economic growth and greater electricity demand,” DeCarolis said.

Global battery storage capacity grows significantly in all IEO2023 cases. In 2022, battery storage accounted for less than 1% of global power capacity. EIA projects that battery storage capacity will grow to make up between 4% and 9% of global power capacity by 2050.

Energy security concerns hasten a transition from fossil fuels in some countries, although they drive increased fossil fuel consumption in others.

In nearly all IEO2023 cases, growth in energy production from non-fossil fuel sources outpaces growth in fossil fuels, but that dynamic varies from region to region. In Western Europe and China, policy, rapid demand growth, and energy security considerations favor locally available resources such as wind, solar, and battery storage, prompting more of these types of installations early in the projection period. Regions with access to relatively affordable coal, such as the Other Asia-Pacific region, consume more coal.

Natural gas and crude oil supply, consumption, and trade patterns evolve in our projections to meet growing demand against the backdrop of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which we assume will continue to limit Russia’s exports to Western markets. The Middle East and North America increase natural gas production and exports to meet growing demand, particularly in China, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

“Across the cases we modeled, energy demand from China, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa will continue to support growth in global natural gas production,” DeCarolis said.

The full IEO2023 is available on EIA’s website.

Projections for the United States in IEO2023 are consistent with those released in the Annual Energy Outlook 2023. EIA does not develop the IEO2023 Reference case as the most probable prediction of the future but rather as a baseline for estimating the effects of policy or technology changes. The side cases show the effects of changing key model assumptions about economic growth, capital costs for zero-carbon technologies, and world oil price.

Additional takeaways from IEO2023

EIA projections show that primary energy will increase by somewhere between 16% and 57% by 2050 compared with 2022, depending on the case, and average annual growth rates range from 0.5% to 1.6% per year.

Across the cases, EIA projects demand for oil and natural gas to increase through 2050 along with growth in global energy demand.

EIA expects renewables will meet the bulk of new energy demand through the projection period. Under current laws, renewables, nuclear, and battery storage make up somewhere between 81% and 95% of new global generating capacity installed through 2050.

Electricity

EIA projects global electricity demand could increase by about one-third to three-quarters by 2050, depending on the case. As much as two-thirds of the world’s electricity generation is projected to come from renewables and nuclear.

Natural gas accounts for approximately 15% to 20% of global electricity generation across all cases in EIA’s projections. In the natural gas-rich Middle East, natural gas provides as much as 85% of electricity generation throughout the projection period.

Battery storage makes up between 18% and 26% of India’s installed electricity capacity by 2050, backing up solar power, which grows to account for between 40% and 50% of the country’s generating capacity.

Oil

Compared with 2022, global demand for oil increases between 3% and 10% by 2030 and between 6% and 42% by 2050, depending on the case. Growth in global oil demand is greatest in the High Economic Growth case. Global oil production is projected to reach around 120 million barrels per day by 2050 in the Reference case.

Refineries adjust production over time to meet a changing product slate in which gasoline demand falls and jet fuel demand rises with global economic growth.

Natural Gas

Compared with 2022, global demand for natural gas increases between 2% and 10% by 2030 and between 11% and 57% by 2050 across cases. Global demand for natural gas increases most in the High Economic Growth case.

China accounts for the most growth in natural gas consumption by volume in the Asia-Pacific region, as natural gas consumption increases in all of China’s economic sectors through 2050.

In most IEO2023 cases, Western Europe and Asia continue to import natural gas through 2050, while the Middle East and North America continue to produce and export more natural gas.

Coal

Compared with 2022, coal consumption ranges from a 7% decrease to a 6% increase by 2030 and a 12% decrease to a 19% increase by 2050.

Projected global demand for coal increases or decreases, depending largely on global economic growth.

Energy-related emissions

Energy-related CO₂ emissions increase by 2050 in most IEO2023 cases, despite the decreasing intensity of energy-related CO₂ emissions in all IEO2023 cases.

China remains the largest source of energy-related CO₂ emissions through the projection period, although its share of the global total declines. India surpasses the United States and Western Europe as an emitter of energy-related CO₂.

Transportation

Compared with 2022, global demand for passenger travel increases by somewhere between 64% and 108%, primarily due to growth in both population and income.

Electric vehicles represent between 29% and 54% of global new vehicle sales by 2050, depending on the case.

The global fleet of internal combustion engine light-duty vehicles peaks between 2027 and 2033 across all IEO2023 projections.

Industrial

India, Africa, and parts of Asia and the Americas have the fastest growth in energy consumption by the industrial sector. In these regions, growth in manufacturing is more significant than declines in energy intensity, leading to overall growth in energy consumption.

Industrial energy consumption declines the most in China as manufacturing becomes a smaller share of total industrial activity in the country.

Commercial and residential buildings

Global electricity use in buildings grows twice as quickly as natural gas use through 2050 in all cases, reflecting a trend toward electrification.

In India, residential energy use triples as households accumulate more disposable income and the population continues to grow.

EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, EIAMedia@eia.gov

Go to Source
Author:

U.S. Energy Information Administration – EIA

EIA: Press Releases

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 5, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023) at a virtual and in-person public event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The IEO2023 presents long-term projections of world energy supply and demand. The IEO2023 models projections of energy markets through 2050 and explores a variety of different assumptions about economic growth, world oil prices, and technological innovation. The event will feature a presentation of the IEO2023 projections by EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis and EIA Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis Angelina LaRose. Following these presentations, Director of the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program Joseph Majkut will sit down with Dr. DeCarolis for an armchair discussion on IEO2023’s highlights and key assumptions and how the IEO can be helpful in informing policymakers. Members of the press and general public can register to attend the event through the CSIS website. You can also join the conversation on social media using #IEO2023. More information about the International Energy Outlook is available at EIA.gov.
What:	International Energy Outlook 2023 discussion of projections
When:	Wednesday, October 11, 2023, at 9:30 a.m. eastern time
Where:	Virtual and in-person event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies
Who:	Joe DeCarolis, Administrator, EIA Joseph Majkut, Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program, CSIS Angelina LaRose, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis, EIA
Register:	https://www.csis.org/events/us-eias-international-energy-outlook-2023
EIA Press Contact: Chris Higginbotham, Chris.Higginbotham@eia.gov

Go to Source
Author: