Soybeans, corn end week on a positive note
Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, ending the week mixed. Demand is solid as export sales have picked up steam recently, while crush margins remain in positive territory. Near-term U.S. harvest delays were also supportive and South American crop weather is mixed. Conditions remain too dry in parts of northern and central Brazil and Argentina, despite recent rain, while portions of southern Brazil are excessively wet. For now, though, the trade is expected a big rebound in production for Argentina this year and most projections have a second consecutive record crop for Argentina. Soybean meal and oil were higher, supported by commercial buying and solid demand.
Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, but still posted week-to-week losses. Corn saw an oversold bounce, also monitoring the slowdown in the U.S. harvest and weather in South America. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out Monday afternoon, while the USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production projections and CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil are both set for November 9th. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 22% of Argentina’s corn crop has been planted, up 2% on the week. Interior basis levels are firming in some areas and demand for ethanol use is strong. That’s offsetting some of the sting from neutral to bearish export demand, but that sector has also seen improvements recently.
The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling, capping off a down week. Rain has delayed U.S. winter wheat planting, but the moisture is welcome ahead of the crop going into dormancy, which should happen shortly in many areas. Both planting and emergence are close to normal. Ukraine is reportedly still shipping grain out of the Black Sea despite threats from Russia. Export demand for U.S. wheat continues to be a bearish factor as Russia maintains its hold over the global market. China’s buying small amount of U.S. wheat, but part of Australia’s crop might have been stabilized by recent rainfall and India has yet to suspend import tariffs. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 6.8% of Argentina’s wheat crop is harvested.
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Author: John Perkins