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Soybeans mixed, corn, wheat up ahead of WASDE report
Soybeans were mixed, adjusting spreads, with nearby months up and deferred contracts down. The USDA reported new export sales to China and unknown destinations ahead of the open, bringing the week-to-date total to 1,145,500 tons, all for 2023/24 delivery. Out of that, 669,000 tons were bought outright by China, a little bit above trade rumors, with the remaining 464,500 tons picked up by that unnamed buyer, which could turn out to be China at delivery time. Conditions remain mixed in Brazil, too wet in some areas, too dry in others. Parts of Argentina have recently received improved rainfall. Still, there is a long way to go in the South American growing season and for now, analysts are generally expecting another record large soybean crop in Brazil and a recovery for the crop in Argentina following last season’s drought damage. Soybean meal closed mixed, also on bull spreading, while bean oil was firm to modestly higher on demand projections.
Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. Mexico bought 270,000 tons of 2023/24 U.S. corn Wednesday morning, their second announced purchase this week, for a running total of 559,575 tons. That recent uptick in export demand from Mexico continues to be a bright spot for demand, along with ethanol use. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly production and stocks numbers are delayed until the 15th for systems maintenance. The issues delaying soybean planting in parts of Brazil will likely delay second crop corn planting. That’s the largest of their three crops and the source of most of their exports, which could open up some opportunities for the U.S. to reclaim its spot as the top exporter. The USDA’s supply and demand update and CONAB’s adjusted outlook for Brazil are both out Thursday, November 9th. Stateside, the trade’s expecting minimal adjustments for U.S. corn and soybean production estimates.
The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, along with some weakness in the dollar during the session. Contracts were able to find some support, while that might be limited by slow exports, there are some chances for improved demand. Russia remains in charge of the market because of price and Ukraine’s exports have accelerated this month, but significant disruptions for both nations are possible due to the ongoing war. There’s also continued talk about new demand for U.S. wheat from China following crop damage and the possibility of imports by India to staunch the rise of domestic prices. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Reports have Russia’s Ag Ministry setting the 2024 grain export quota at 24 million tons. The trade is also monitoring U.S. winter wheat weather ahead of widespread dormancy.
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Author: John Perkins