NDSU’s Frayne Olson expects to see continued volatility in the grain markets throughout the growing season.
“We’ve seen quite a drop in prices in the last probably week or so,” he said.
“The May report is the first time we get forecast for the 2023 growing year,” he said. “So there was no major surprises, but basically confirmation that everybody’s looking for a large crop this year.”
Add to that
“So when we look at what’s going on in Nebraska, parts of southern Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, they’re crop for both corn and soybeans are actually ahead of normal,” he explained.
The fear Olson has of that is the farmers get “backyard syndrome” and only realize what’s happening around them. Most of North Dakota, as well as parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, have made slower planting progress.
“Just because we’re behind on our planting progress and the fact that we’re having some challenges up here doesn’t mean that the markets are going to respond to all of that because we are kind of the outlier at this stage of the game,” he said.
He expects continued volatility.
“I know that I feel like a broken record when we talk about that,” he said.
But even though ending stocks are expected to increase on a big crop, consumption also looks pretty positive.
“So even though look, again, looking at very large production, the consumption outlook is also very strong. And obviously there’s a lot of volatility yet in the global markets, a lot of uncertainty there. And we still have a long growing season ahead of us,” he said.
Emily grew up on a corn, soybean and wheat farm in southern Ohio where her family also raises goats. After graduating from The Ohio State University, she moved to Fargo, North Dakota to pursue a career in ag journalism with Agweek. She enjoys reporting on livestock and local agricultural businesses.
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